Australian dwelling prices are forecast to rise 6% to 10% in 2026, according to SQM Research’s Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2026.
The report points to another year of growth across all capital cities, supported by steady demand and the momentum carried over from 2025’s monetary easing.
The forecast comes amid a shifting interest rate outlook, with a resilient labour market pushing expectations for RBA cuts further out even as cooling construction activity and softer spending ease inflationary pressures.
Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and Darwin are once again expected to lead the country, with the first three tipped to record dwelling price rises of up to 16%. Strong population inflows, tight supply, and ongoing economic momentum continue to support these markets.
SQM managing director Louis Christopher (pictured) noted the market’s durability.
“2025 has been a year of resilience for the Australian property market, driven by strong population inflows and initial monetary policy easing; plus, in recent months, the First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme," Christopher said.
Base case shaped by stable rates and moderate population growth
SQM’s outlook assumes:
SQM describes the base case as a steady but sluggish economy that still carries price momentum from late 2025 through mid-2026. Expected rate cuts in the second half of 2026 are forecast to keep prices rising through the remainder of the year.
If cuts do not occur as expected, SQM still forecasts dwelling price rises across every capital city, albeit at a slower pace. Earlier rate reductions in 2025 and continuing government incentives for first-home buyers should help sustain buyer activity.
Discussing the range of possible economic paths ahead, Christopher said: "However, as we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths, from a sluggish economy, which is our base case through to sticky inflation delaying rate relief to a global slowdown; or even a robust economic rebound is possible.”
He added that “Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide [are] poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum."
Separate national forecasts are also pointing to record prices by late 2026, with projections showing Sydney’s median house price could climb to around $1.9 million and the combined capitals reaching a median of $1.3 million. These broader forecasts highlight similar drivers to SQM’s outlook, including cheaper mortgage rates, tight supply, and the expanded first-home buyer guarantee, although APRA has cautioned that rising high-risk lending and increased investor activity are re-emerging as financial vulnerabilities.
To access the Boom & Bust report or for more property insights, visit the SQM Research website.
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