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Australia’s mortgage market is running noticeably hotter again, with new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showing a solid rebound in housing finance and a sharp pick-up in investor activity — even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the official cash rate (OCR) on hold and continues to warn about inflation.
For mortgage brokers, the September quarter numbers point to a busier summer: more purchase deals, a still-elevated tide of refinancers and an investor cohort borrowing more energetically than owner-occupiers.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the total number of new loan commitments for dwellings rose 6.4% in the September quarter 2025. The value of those loans climbed 9.6% to $98.0 billion.
Owner-occupier activity moved higher but more modestly. The number of new owner-occupier loan commitments increased 2% in the quarter, with the value up 4.7% to $58.2 billion. Within that, first-home buyer loans rose 2.3% by number and 1.1% by value.
Investor lending was notably stronger. The number of new investor loan commitments for dwellings jumped 13.6% in the quarter, while the value of those loans rose 17.6% to $39.8 billion. Compared with a year earlier, investor loan values were up 18.7%, versus 9.8% growth for owner-occupiers.
Those figures mean investors now account for a substantial portion of total new housing finance by value, with ABS data showing nearly $40 billion in new investor commitments out of $98 billion in total lending for the quarter. For brokers, that translates into more landlord clients returning to the market and competing directly with owner-occupiers for stock.
First-home buyer volumes are edging higher, but their share of overall activity remains relatively stable, suggesting that the current upswing is being driven more by upgraders and investors than by newcomers alone.
The ABS data also confirm that refinancing remains a major strand of demand, even as new purchase activity recovers.
In the September quarter, there were sizeable numbers of refinancing transactions across both owner-occupiers and investors. For owner-occupiers, internal refinancing within the same lender rose 4.5% in the quarter and 29.1% over the year, while external refinancing between lenders was broadly flat on the quarter but still almost 19% higher than a year earlier.
Among investors, internal refinancing increased 8.9% in the quarter and 23.8% over the year; external refinancing grew 8.4% over the quarter and 17.9% over the year.
In dollar terms, the value of owner-occupier internal refinances climbed 6.5% in the quarter and more than 40% over the year to $24.8 billion. External owner-occupier refinances rose 2.1% in the quarter and 24.7% over the year to $41.3 billion. Investor refinancing followed the same pattern, with double-digit annual growth across both internal and external switches.
The picture for brokers is that the refinancing boom has evolved rather than ended. Many households are still reshaping their debt – some securing sharper rates with new lenders, others re-working terms with existing banks rather than switching.
All of this is occurring against a monetary policy backdrop that is no longer relentlessly tightening, but also far from loose.
The RBA has kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at recent meetings, after a run of earlier increases followed by cuts this year. The central bank has signalled that inflation remains above the 2% to 3% target band and is expected to stay there for some time, and has described policy as restrictive.
Recent commentary from senior officials has noted internal debate about whether the current level of rates remains sufficiently restrictive, particularly after stronger-than-expected inflation data in the September quarter. Markets that had been priming for an additional cut late this year have pushed those expectations out, with pricing now implying only gradual easing through 2026 rather than a rapid return to very low rates.
For brokers, the practical implication is that funding costs have eased from their peaks but are unlikely to retrace to pre-pandemic levels any time soon. Fixed-rate pricing has already adjusted to the prospect of modest future cuts, but variable borrowers are still carrying materially higher repayments than they were a few years ago.
Demographic and policy forces are also underpinning the latest lending upswing.
Official projections show Australia’s population continuing to grow strongly, while housing completions have lagged targets in several states. That imbalance between demand and new supply has kept pressure on both rents and prices, even with higher interest rates.
Federal first-home buyer schemes and various state-level stamp duty concessions are also helping some buyers into the market, which aligns with the small but positive lift in first-home buyer commitments in the ABS data.
At the same time, rising rents and low vacancy rates in many capitals are supporting investor interest, helping to explain the sharp recovery in investor lending.
Taken together, the September quarter numbers and the broader economic backdrop set up a mortgage market that is busier and more complex than it was a year ago.
For intermediaries, several themes stand out:
• Investor clients are once again a key driver of volumes, and will need careful guidance on serviceability, interest-only options, and potential regulatory changes if investor credit grows too quickly.
• Refinancing remains central to many businesses, but the mix is shifting towards internal refinances, suggesting that some borrowers will stay with their current lender unless brokers clearly demonstrate the value of moving.
• First-home buyers will benefit from targeted schemes and slightly easier credit conditions, but high loan sizes and elevated living costs mean detailed budgeting and product advice are more important than ever.
• Clients’ expectations around interest rates will need managing. Many borrowers are reading about possible cuts and may be tempted to wait for cheaper deals, but current fixed rates already incorporate the market’s view of future moves, and there is no guarantee that funding costs will fall in a straight line.
The ABS data show Australians are borrowing again with more confidence, particularly investors. The question for the next year is whether that confidence proves well-founded in an environment where rates are still high by recent standards and the Reserve Bank remains focused on inflation.
Mortgage brokers, sitting between lenders and borrowers, will be central to how households navigate that trade-off – helping clients borrow what they can live with, rather than simply what they can technically service at today’s test rates.
