Victoria accounted for 30% of Australia’s total population growth in 2024 – the largest share of any state or territory – marking a significant comeback from its pandemic-era slump, according to ABS data analysed by PropTrack.
“This was just the second time since 2019 that Victoria took the biggest slice of the population pie,” the analysis said.
In 2023, Victoria had already edged slightly ahead of NSW, claiming 28% of the country’s growth compared to NSW’s 27%. But 2024 data confirmed Victoria’s resurgence, overtaking its rivals by a significant margin.
Victoria’s dominance in national population growth was standard before the pandemic. But during the COVID years, the state lost more than 34,000 people across 2020 and 2021, largely due to Melbourne’s extended lockdowns.
While Victoria experienced losses, Queensland and Western Australia surged. In 2020, Queensland took 50% of Australia’s total population increase, and WA claimed 36%.
The following year, those states remained ahead: Queensland absorbed 46% of the country’s growth and WA 24%, while Victoria continued to record net declines.
Those shifts coincided with booming property markets in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, which recorded stronger price growth than other capitals over the past two years.
Home prices are influenced by multiple factors, including interest rates, taxation, and housing supply.
Victoria has long been a national leader in new housing development and has also implemented tax reforms affecting property investors.
However, population growth is a key ingredient in housing demand, and the trajectory seen in WA and Queensland suggests Victoria could be next.
“If Victoria follows the post-pandemic trajectory of Queensland and WA, it is possible the state's – and in particular Melbourne's – property market could see a comeback in the near future,” the analysis said.
The early signs of recovery may already be underway. Melbourne’s median home price has risen every month since February, coinciding with improved affordability and strong population growth. This, paired with expectations of lower interest rates later this year, could set the stage for a broader rebound in Australia’s second-largest housing market, PropTrack said.
That comeback could be accelerated by broader national housing market momentum. Despite the Reserve Bank (RBA) pausing rates in July, property prices continue to rise – underpinned by a persistent housing shortage, strong investor sentiment, and widespread expectations of future rate cuts.
New suburb-level data from Cotality’s July Housing Chart Pack reinforces the upward trend. While only 12.9% of Melbourne suburbs were at record-high values at the end of June, many are closing in. Cotality identified 329 suburbs nationwide within 0.5% of their peak, with 290 of those posting quarterly gains. This indicates that Melbourne, though lagging some cities, is building momentum.
