Australia’s labour market is continuing to absorb higher mortgage rates and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the latest CommBank Wage and Labour Insights report, offering some support for first-home buyers and property investors concerned about borrowing capacity.
De‑identified salary data from around 400,000 CBA customer accounts indicates wages rose by 0.8% over the three months to April, keeping annual growth at about 3.1%. CommBank economist Harry Ottley said there were few signs so far that higher interest rates or the Middle East conflict were weighing directly on incomes.
“CBA Wage Insights showed wages growth remained stable in April, consistent with the broader labour market: the trend unemployment rate has held at 4.3% since July 2025,” Ottley said in a media release.
“As wages growth typically lags labour market and economic conditions, it is not surprising that higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict have not yet flowed through our data.”
The results come amid what CBA says is a temporary “stagflationary impulse”, with growth slowing even as inflation and mortgage rates remain elevated. The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate to 4.35%, its third increase in 2026, as it focuses on bringing inflation back under control.
By state, Western Australia and South Australia are tied for the fastest wage growth at 3.7%, with South Australia joining WA at the top for the first time since 2019. New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are tracking between 3% and 3.3%, while Tasmania sits at the bottom of the table on 2.8%.
Ottley said the broader picture is one of stability rather than acceleration.
“This reinforces our assessment that the labour market is broadly stable, and still slightly tighter than what is considered full employment,” he said.
CBA’s Labour Insights data estimates around 23,000 jobs were added in April, matching March.
“The labour market remains resilient to higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict at this early stage,” Ottley said. He expects employment growth to soften later in 2026 as slower activity feeds through.
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