As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) wraps up its two-day monetary policy meeting today, markets are holding their breath ahead of the central bank’s next move.
The bank has already delivered two rate hikes in 2026, lifting the official cash rate (OCR) to 4.10%. While all four of the Big Four banks expect another increase, broker forecasts remain divided amid inflationary pressures and ongoing global conflict.
In a two-part series, Australian Broker spoke with brokers nationwide to gauge sentiment ahead of the big reveal, and explore what it could mean for the near-term outlook.
Founder and chief executive officer at Brisbane-based Boss Money
"I think we're heading for an increase. This all feels, a little, like COVID-19 times [again]. Back then, the world stopped for six months and everything looked normal coming out the other side. Then the global economy went to pieces. Right now, the Iran conflict and pressure on petrol supply chains is the slow burn nobody's really talking about. I think if inflation pushes back toward 5% in the backend of 2026, and the consumer variable rate could realistically be at 7% by year end.
What's happening right now: four out of 10 clients I'm working with now want to refinance to a better rate but can't because they no longer qualify under current servicing calcs. Rates moved fast. Wages didn't. They're stuck on whatever rate they took out their loan at. The mortgage prisoner is back. I feel like first-time homebuyers are desperate. They can see their chance slipping away. Refinancing enquiries are strong, but conversions are way down because of the servicing problem. People want to refinance to better fixed rates but can't. Now they have to ride out the variable increases, which seems unfair."
Franchise owner and broker at Mortgage Choice Coolum Beach and Noosaville
"My call is a hold. But honestly, it could go either way. Two hikes are already hitting household budgets hard and the board has said repeatedly it is watching the numbers as they come in. The problem is Q1 came in hot, and the trimmed mean is still sitting above target. If they want to move again, the data gives them cover.
The reality is, inflation was already baked in well before the Middle East conflict. Government overspending and a public sector running full tilt had already set the conditions. The conflict is just fuel on a fire that was already burning. Hopefully the May budget delivers some genuine spending cuts. Because while the public purse is competing with the private sector for the same workers and materials, the RBA is fighting with one hand tied behind its back.
Every 0.25% [increase] knocks around $25,000 off what someone can borrow. We have seen that play out with our clients. On the north end of the Sunshine Coast, the entry price has pushed well past a million in most suburbs. People are still buying. But they are having to make tougher calls. What compounds it is that the people who might normally upsize are not moving. They are sitting tight because the numbers do not work for them to trade up. And there is nothing coming out of the ground to fix the supply side. No developments of any scale in the pipeline. So you have strong demand and no stock and that is not changing any time soon.
Refinancing has not slowed down at all. If anything the back-to-back hikes have sharpened people up. Clients who had not looked at their rate in six months are calling now. We are also seeing a real lift in self-employed clients coming through and a lot of alt doc refinances on [business activity] statements. Debt consolidation is busy too, both for self-employed borrowers and standard PAYG clients who are carrying personal debt and credit cards on top of their mortgage. Before fixed rates pushed above 6%, we were doing a run of two-year fixed conversions for people who wanted some certainty. That door has pretty much closed now."
Owner and senior broker at Perth-based Elite Finance Australia
"My view is that the RBA is leaning towards another 0.25% rate increase rather than holding steady. To be honest, I’m not a fan of this outcome, especially considering how it directly impacts those who are already feeling the pinch and could really do without another rate rise. The reality is, increasing rates affects everyone, but not equally. People who are diligently saving for a home deposit are already making sacrifices, cutting back on their spending to try and keep their dream alive. Then you’ve got recent buyers who’ve just taken on a mortgage, and for them, every rate hike stings that little bit more.
On the other hand, older Australians who’ve either paid off their mortgages, or [who] have very little left to pay, aren’t really affected by these changes. They’ll likely keep enjoying their lifestyle without much change. The same goes for those who are boarding or renting; these rate rises don’t touch them directly, so their spending habits often stay the same.
[Right now] borrowers are still actively refinancing [ahead of the RBA's next move]. But the reasons have shifted. Most aren’t chasing small rate wins; they’re refinancing defensively. The focus is on improving cash flow, consolidating debt or moving to sharper variable rates with lower fees. For many households, it’s about stress management as the cost of living continues to increase.
On the buying side, there is still solid enquiry from people looking to get into the market ahead of any future rate moves. Many are still living with family or squeezed into shared accommodation and simply need their own space. That said, buyers are far more cautious and calculated. They’re negotiating harder, leaning on pre‑approvals as a safety net and prioritising affordability over stretching for a dream property."
Mortgage and finance broker at Brisbane-based Mortgage Advice Bureau Australia
"More likely rates will increase. But even if they don't, then an increase in June is almost assured. The two interest rate increases we have seen this year have certainly had an impact on the market, in particular in Victoria and New South Wales. I expect another increase will further impact those markets while also slowing the strongest performing markets: Western Australia, regional South Australia and Queensland.
Based on what we're seeing across the country, the purchase market activity is coming off. But it’s being replaced with refinance and debt consolidation. Australians are looking at all their loan repayments and wanting to know what they can do to lower them. Most people don’t know what their interest rate is on their loans and credit cards. They simply know what they have to pay each month. These monthly commitments will be further impacted with more rate increases."
