Fixed rates surge as RBA hike looms on hot inflation

Inflation data could make next week’s RBA hike “done deal”

Fixed rates surge as RBA hike looms on hot inflation

News

By Mina Martin

Australia’s fixed home loan market tightened again last week, with six lenders lifting a combined 176 owner‑occupier and investor fixed rates by an average of 0.24%, according to Canstar’s latest Weekly Rate Wrap-up.

Canstar data shows the average variable rate for owner‑occupiers paying principal and interest now sits at 5.92%. The cheapest variable rate on the market for any LVR is 4.99%, available to refinancers through Pacific Mortgage Group and to first‑home buyers via Horizon Bank, G&C Mutual Bank, and Unity Bank.

The pool of sharper deals is shrinking: there are now 255 home loan rates below 5.25% in Canstar’s database, down from 287 just a week earlier.

“Banks continued to march their fixed rates north this week, with six more lenders hiking an eyewatering 176 rates in the space of seven days,” Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said.

Sub‑5% fixed rates ‘on borrowed time’

Tindall warned that cheaper fixed options are rapidly vanishing. 

“Rates under 5% are now officially on borrowed time with just 10 lenders offering at least one rate in the ‘4s’,” she said.

With the unemployment rate at 4.1% clearing the way for tighter policy, attention has now turned to Wednesday’s inflation figures and what they mean for the Reserve Bank’s next move.

Inflation print could seal the next RBA hike

Tindall said RBA’s decision is likely to come down to the December quarter trimmed mean result. 

“Should trimmed mean inflation land at 3.3%, or higher, for the December quarter, you’d have to think a cash rate hike next week is close to a done deal,” the Canstar leader said. “Even a quarterly figure at 3.2% will be a line-ball call in which the RBA might just say ‘why not?’.”

After four years battling elevated inflation, she argues the central bank has little time to waste and may be reluctant to wait another three months for fresh quarterly data.

For borrowers, Tindall’s message is clear: “If you’ve got a mortgage, it’s time to start preparing… a quick check of your rates across both mortgages and savings accounts takes less than 10 minutes and could uncover a loyalty tax you didn’t realise you were paying.”

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