Brisbane and Perth are tipped to power ahead on price growth this year even as higher mortgage rates erode borrowing capacity and cool demand in Sydney and Melbourne.
Canstar analysis of ANZ forecasts and Cotality data suggests Perth could post the strongest gains through to the end of 2026, with dwelling values expected to climb 12.3%.
Applied to houses, that would take Perth’s median up by around $51,500 to about $1.11 million. Brisbane is not far behind, with a 9.7% rise implying a lift of roughly $54,900 to a median of about $1.26 million.
By contrast, ANZ expects house prices in Sydney and Melbourne to edge lower through to the end of next year. Sydney’s median is projected to dip slightly from about $1.60 million, while Melbourne’s could slide by close to $8,000. Smaller gains are forecast in Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra, and Darwin, reinforcing the “two‑speed” picture emerging across the capitals.
The growth outlook for Brisbane and Perth comes despite higher mortgage rates steadily chipping away at what banks are prepared to lend.
Canstar estimates that a single borrower on the average full‑time wage can now borrow about $24,800 less than before the February and March RBA cash rate hikes. If Westpac’s expectation of three more 0.25 percentage point increases this year plays out, that same borrower’s maximum budget could shrink by almost $58,700 in 2026 alone.
Those cuts to borrowing power sit on top of APRA’s 3‑percentage‑point serviceability buffer, designed to ensure borrowers can still cope if mortgage rates rise.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall describes the current environment as “a tale of two property markets across Australia in a tug-of-war between how much the bank will lend, versus how desperately people need houses.”
Tindall notes that cuts to borrowing capacity in Sydney and Melbourne are already larger than the modest falls in median prices, leaving many would‑be buyers still stretched.
In Brisbane and Perth, strong population growth and limited listings are helping prices “defy the cash rate hikes” for now.
Commonwealth Bank’s latest Regional Movers Index shows capital‑to‑regional moves remain elevated, with Queensland attracting many Sydney and Melbourne movers and regional WA also adding to housing demand outside the major capitals.
SQM Research data show total national listings rose 3.5% in March, with Brisbane up 6.3% but still 15.4% lower year-on-year, and Perth surging 12.0% yet remaining 21.7% below March 2025 levels – underscoring how tight supply remains in both cities.
Tindall warns that “both of these markets are hurtling towards prices that are fast becoming unaffordable for people looking for four walls and a patch of grass.”
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