New Equifax data points to a clear two-speed credit economy between large corporates and SMEs in early 2026.
This pick-up in headline credit demand comes even as NAB’s March survey shows confidence at its lowest since April 2020. Business conditions hold at +6 and capacity utilisation lifts to 83.1%, indicating many firms are still running near full tilt despite growing caution.
The latest Equifax Business Market Pulse shows overall business credit demand rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, led by large enterprises. Credit enquiries from big business climbed 5.9% over the year, while SME demand fell 5.8%.
Equifax general manager of commercial, Brad Walters (pictured), said the report “highlights an accelerating divide in business credit activity,” with smaller operators bearing the brunt of higher interest rates and persistent inflation.
Construction was one of the few bright spots. Overall credit demand in the sector edged up 2.4% year-on-year, driven by stronger appetite for business loans and asset finance.
Queensland stood out, with construction business loans in the state jumping 18% and asset finance demand also lifting as work progresses on Brisbane 2032 Olympic and infrastructure projects.
Walters noted that “Queensland continues to be the national outlier, with credit growth undeterred by global volatility,” with both large and small construction businesses among the most active credit seekers.
The logistics sector is flashing warning signs. Overall credit demand fell 4.2% year-on-year, with business loan enquiries down 11.6%. At the same time, trade credit usage jumped 16%, suggesting operators are relying more on short-term facilities to manage rising fuel and supply chain costs rather than funding growth.
More broadly, ATO tax debt is rising. New tax debt disclosures increased 37.8% year-on-year in March, with logistics and construction particularly affected. Recent Jirsch Sutherland analysis also shows big four banks ramping up court-led recoveries as arrears build, signalling less forbearance for struggling borrowers.
“Most notably, we are seeing a major lift in tax debt,” Walters said, warning that elevated defaults often precede a broader lift in insolvencies. Top of FormBottom of Form
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