Australian wage growth and employment are proving more resilient than headlines about the Middle East conflict and sticky inflation might suggest, according to new CommBank data.
Drawing on de‑identified salary data from around 400,000 CBA accounts, the bank’s wage series shows average pay packets rose 0.8% over the three months to March, with annual growth steady at 3.1%.
“The CBA Wage insights series continues to show wages growth is steady heading into a period of higher inflation and inflation expectations period due to the Middle East conflict,” CommBank head of Australian economics Belinda Allen (pictured) said in a media release.
The backdrop includes fresh energy market jitters, adding to cost‑of‑living pressures, with US crude briefly jumping 8% and Brent 7% after Washington said it would blockade Iranian ports.
Roy Morgan’s latest surveys also point to a cautious mood, with business confidence stuck below the 100‑point optimism line and consumer confidence hovering near historic lows as higher fuel and mortgage costs bite.
Allen noted that wage growth appears to have settled at a new base. According to CBA’s data, annual pay increases have hovered between 3.1% and 3.2% since mid‑2025, with “wages growth… finding a new base at around 3.1%/yr”.
This comes as the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% in March, citing persistent inflation pressures and the impact of higher global oil prices on the outlook.
Wage trends remain uneven across the country. Western Australia retained top spot for the 15th consecutive month, with annual wage growth of 3.9% in March. South Australia posted 3.4%, while Queensland recorded 3.3% and New South Wales and the ACT came in at 3.2% and 3.5% respectively. Victoria and Tasmania saw the slowest growth, with both states experiencing a gradual softening in recent months.
On the jobs side, the CommBank Labour Insights series estimates around 23,000 jobs were added in March, a slight uptick on February and evidence that employment growth is settling into a new baseline after strong gains in 2024 and 2025.
Allen said that “in the third month of 2026, employment as shown by CBA data remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates and the Middle East conflict.”
However, she cautioned that “we do expect the unemployment rate to lift from here,” with the extent of any rise hinging on the success of ceasefire efforts and future oil prices.
Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz each day, so any prolonged disruption there could keep fuel and inflation pressures elevated for longer.
Get the hottest and freshest property and mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
