The new year is here. And with 2026 comes a new outlook for Australia's property and loan markets.
With so many conflicting forces — rising inflation, a persistent housing shortage, multiple expanded government schemes and uncertainty about which way the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will steer monetary policy in the year ahead — predicting the year ahead is anything but straightforward.
To help cut through the noise, Australian Broker rounded up insights from some of the industry’s top players on what to expect in the mortgage and loan markets in the year ahead.
Head of strategic growth at Australian private equity firm Recludo
"There will definitely be more of the same of what we saw in 2025. I'm definitely expecting there to be more consolidation in the market, for sure, across all levels. We're seeing it at broker level. We're seeing it at aggregator level. And we're definitely seeing it at the lender level. So, more of the same."
Finance Specialist & Mortgage Broker at Emerge Finance
"In Brisbane, specifically, I think prices will continue to rise. I don't think that's going to slow down anytime soon. And with inflation going up, it's likely we won't have a rate cut in 2026, maybe a rate hike. That will curb some of the spending, potentially. But there are still very limited houses in stock available. There's a lot of demand and a lot of pre-approved buyers out there at the moment with nothing to buy because there's limited stock. So I think prices will continue to rise next year.
"From the first-time homebuyer market, a lot of them have the fear of missing out. A lot of first-time homebuyers are trying to get in on the 5% deposit scheme now before property prices get too far out of reach, and the million-dollar mark is no longer achievable. And I think there will continue to be a lot more investor activity. I think there will be a combination of a lot of first-time homebuyers and first-time investors in the market as well, in 2026."
Managing director at Gold Coast-based Investure
"We'll have plenty of growth in 2026. This year is going to be a very big year for us. There's still lots of growth left in the market. Some of that comes down to population growth. It's just going to keep driving things. I think investment lending is where it's going to be. The market needs more investment properties. Just look at the rents; 40 or 50 people lining up to rent one property. There just aren't enough rentals out there. So the demand will be capitalized on, in a lot of the market.
Director of finance at Specialist Mortgage
"If interest rates go up, then definitely it will have a dampener effect on the market. But it's not going to be a reduction in property prices. It might just hold the escalation of prices. In 2026, I think Melbourne is the market, the state, that is going to do well. I think everywhere else, hopefully, will just tick along."
Founder, director and finance specialist Emerge Finance
"Property prices will continue to rise. It's a supply and demand issue. There hasn't really been much change in the supply side. We're still under utilizing the amount of new properties that [the country] is building. That demand keeps rising."
Chief executive officer at Finsure
"I have concerns that there could be possibly two [rate] hikes in the new year, which is unfortunate. This looks like it will be an important time for brokers to help their customers prepare for and navigate these challenges to get through the tough times. The best news for mortgage customers next year could be the RBA keeping official [cash] rates in an extended holding pattern."
Executive general manager at Equifax
"Despite the significant momentum in October, we expect new homeowner demand could slow down due to fading optimism for near-term rate relief, with some of the recent activity likely driven by the anticipation of rate cuts that have not, and may not, arrive, offsetting any boosts from the federal scheme.
"We're operating in a complex environment; we have high demand from policy-incentivised first home buyers clashing with historically low inventory. This could put more pressure on house prices and further create affordability challenges."
Founder and managing director at FinStreet
"For the non-banks like FinStreet, we are very, very busy. We have been feeling it since October. A lot of activity moved to non-banks. We have this easy re-fi, we just shut it down in December because of time, because we had too many applications. We told clients we'd have to come back in 2026 because we couldn't ensure that we could get approved before the holidays. That's why we think it will be very busy in 2026. I don't know about the whole market. But for non-banks, it will be very busy."
Founder and managing director at Perth-based real estate investment firm Momentum Wealth
"It's going to be busy. There's lots of demand in most capital cities and limited supply. It varies around the country, but we're expecting another pretty solid year. It might not be a boom year, but certainly a pretty solid year in 2026.
"In the commercial market, there's a lot of investors interested in industrial properties, medical properties and retail. That's been quite solid. [Moving forward] it will depend on where interest rates go. But the office market, that sector will still be soft. There won't be a lot of demand for office space in 2026. People are working from home a lot more; the demand for office space is a lot less."
